DLR · 6 November 2026
Every rarity, every chase card, and the number that actually matters: how many packs it takes to have a real chance of pulling it — plus what chasing it costs compared with buying it.
Mega Hyper Rare (gold) · 1 cards in this rarity · each one equally likely
Per pack
0.1%
In one box (36)
3.8%
Per ETB (9)
1.0%
Average packs
1 in 925
Open how many packs?
36 packs
≈ 1.0 booster boxes
Chance of at least one
3.8%
Two or more: <0.1%
| Confidence | Packs | Booster Boxs | Spend |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 641 | 18 | $2,898 |
| 75% | 1,282 | 36 | $5,796 |
| 90% | 2,129 | 60 | $9,659 |
| Boxes | Packs | At least one | Spend |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36 | 3.8% | $161 |
| 2 | 72 | 7.5% | $322 |
| 3 | 108 | 11% | $483 |
| 5 | 180 | 18% | $805 |
Buy or rip? This card trades at $475. Spending the same money on booster boxs buys about 106 packs, which gives you a 11% chance of pulling it — and a 89% chance of ending up with nothing but bulk.
Data snapshot 10 November 2026 · about 1,850 packs counted · community estimates, never official odds
The numbers
Delta Reign holds 141 cards — a 103-card main set and 38 secret rares — split across five pull tiers. The tier rate is what most people mean by "pull rate": how often a card of that rarity appears in a pack. The per-card rate is the one you feel when you are chasing a single artwork, and it is simply the tier rate divided across every card in the tier.
That gap is why the top cards feel so much rarer than the table suggests. A Special Illustration Rare shows up every 80 packs, but six cards share that slot, so any one of them is closer to 1 in 480. The gold Mega Hyper Rare has no such dilution — it is the only card in its tier, which is exactly why it carries the highest price in the set.
| Rarity | Cards | Any card | Specific card | Per box |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double Rare (ex) | 10 | 1 in 5 | 1 in 50 | 52% |
| Illustration Rare | 14 | 1 in 9 | 1 in 126 | 25% |
| Ultra Rare (full art) | 17 | 1 in 12 | 1 in 204 | 16% |
| Special Illustration Rare | 6 | 1 in 80 | 1 in 480 | 7.2% |
| Mega Hyper Rare (gold)1 in 925–1,400 | 1 | 1 in 925 | 1 in 925 | 3.8% |
Per-box column shows the chance a 36-pack booster box contains at least one copy of one specific card. Ranges appear where published estimates disagree. Community data, not official figures.
Do the maths
Packs do not remember how many you have opened, so the odds of pulling a card at least once in n packs follows one formula: 1 − (1 − 1/N)^n, where N is the per-card rate. It is why a 1-in-480 card is not a guarantee at 480 packs — you are only at about 63% there.
Reaching 50% on the Special Illustration Rare Mega Rayquaza ex takes roughly 333 packs, about nine booster boxes. Reaching 90% takes about 1,104 packs, or 31 boxes. The gold version at 141/103 is worse: 1 in 925 packs means roughly 641 packs for a coin flip and 2,129 packs — nearly 60 boxes — for 90% confidence.
The maths also hides how opening actually feels. Most packs return bulk, and at 1 in 480 more than six out of ten boxes contain no Special Illustration Rare Rayquaza at all. The cost of chasing is paid in packs that look exactly like the ones that contained the card.
Swap in your own card in the calculator for exact numbers; the tiers above use the set's community estimates.
Buy or rip
A 36-pack box at the retail $160.99 works out to about $4.47 a pack. On the rarity rates above, that box should return roughly seven Double Rares, four Illustration Rares, three Ultra Rares and a 36% chance at any Special Illustration Rare. The gold Mega Hyper Rare lands in about 3.8% of boxes.
That spread is healthy for players — a box is a sensible way to pick up the ex cards a Standard deck needs. It is a poor way to buy one specific collector card. The SIR Mega Rayquaza ex trades near $421; at retail pack prices, the same money buys about 94 packs, which carries only a 17.9% chance of pulling it at 1 in 480.
Market prices have run well above retail since release, with boxes trading near $228, which makes the singles-versus-packs gap even wider. If a card you want is worth less than the boxes it would take to pull it, buy the card.
Method
The Pokémon Company does not publish booster odds. Every number here is a community estimate: packs are opened, rarities are counted, and the hits are divided by the sample size. Large samples converge on a stable figure, small ones produce dramatic swings — the same set can look twice as generous across two samples of a few hundred packs.
Delta Reign shipped on 6 November 2026, so English samples are still small. The tier rates here come from about 1,850 counted packs catalogued by PokeZentrum and cross-checked against Evol Vault and TCG Talk box reports; where the sources disagree, the spread is shown — as with the gold Mega Hyper Rare, quoted anywhere from 1 in 925 to 1 in 1,400. Within a tier, cards are treated as equally likely, so a specific card's rate is the tier rate divided by the tier's card count.
Use the numbers as relative difficulty rather than a contract. "The gold card is about eighteen times rarer than a specific SIR" is robust across datasets; "exactly 925 packs" is not.
Looking for another set or the underlying formula on its own? Use the Pokemon pull rate calculator.
Planning a deck around what you pull? Build it in the Pokemon Team Planner and check the damage numbers in the damage calculator. If you would rather leave the team to chance, try a Pokemon roulette run.
FAQ
Community counts put a Double Rare at roughly 1 in 5 packs, an Illustration Rare at 1 in 9, an Ultra Rare at 1 in 12, a Special Illustration Rare at 1 in 80 and the gold Mega Hyper Rare at about 1 in 925. The Pokémon Company does not publish official rates, so these are estimates built from large openings rather than confirmed figures.
The gold Mega Rayquaza ex at 141/103 is the hardest card in the set at roughly 1 in 925 packs, which is about 26 booster boxes on average. The Special Illustration Rare version at 138/103 sits in a six-card rarity at 1 in 80 packs, so one specific SIR works out to about 1 in 480 packs, or roughly 14 boxes.
A box gives you around seven Double Rares, four Illustration Rares, three Ultra Rares and a 36% chance at any Special Illustration Rare. If you are chasing one specific card, buying that card as a single is almost always cheaper than the boxes it would take to pull it. If you enjoy opening and want a spread of playable cards, a box delivers the most packs per dollar.
Nobody has official numbers, so every table comes from counting packs by hand. Small samples swing wildly, especially for the rarest tiers: a 1,000-pack sample can miss a 1-in-925 card entirely. We use the largest available counts and show the English release as an estimate based on the matching Japanese print run until enough English packs have been opened.
The card pool is nearly identical — Delta Reign is the English release of Storm Emeralda, topped up with 30 cards from the Japanese Mega Starter Decks. Japanese packs hold 5 cards and English packs hold 10, so pack-for-pack numbers do not translate directly, but the rarity density per box is the closest guide available this early.
Yes. Delta Herrschaft is the German name for the same expansion, which released worldwide on 6 November 2026. It is the sixth Mega Evolution set, brings Mega Rayquaza ex back to the trading card game for the first time since XY, and contains 141 cards: a 103-card main set plus 38 secret rares.
